It may be dry on the plains outside Okotoks, but it’s a different story in the mountains at the Sheep River’s headwaters.
Snowpack at the headwaters of the Sheep River at Mount Odlum are currently within the normal range, but have been leveling off since the start of the year. They were above the normal range for November and December.
Colleen Walford, Alberta Environment and Parks river forecaster, said snow levels have dropped, but she said the snowpack is higher than the same time last year.
“What you’ll see is you’re looking across all the different snow pillows that we have, there’s a really big swing,” she said. “Some are above, some are below, some are average.”
Conditions at the Little Elbow summit to the north are drier and nearing the bottom of the historic range. At Sunshine Village, further north, snowpack is at the bottom of the range and at Lost Creek to the south it is in the middle of the range. Walford said snow levels will typically level off in January, but February was a particularly dry month, with below normal precipitation.
“That could be attributed to so many things,” she said. “It could be the jet stream. It could be El Nińo. It could be all those different things.”
Walford said the good news is there is still two months left for potential snowfall.
She said they won’t have a clear image of how much water will be available for irrigators and municipal use until May, but they can start to plan.
“We have to really wait until May for the snow to really tell its story,” said Walford.
The province is currently forecasting water levels in the Highwood River at the confluence with the Bow River will be 93 per cent of average between March to September. Provincial numbers state it could range anywhere from 78 per cent to 108 per cent.
“It’s pretty much close to the average,” said Walford.
In 2015, water levels were 73 per cent of average.
She said the forecast is a good indication of Highwood tributaries upstream of the Bow River, including the Sheep River.
A new forecast will be released later this month.
“All you can really use those numbers for is for planning, action planning,” said Walford.
She said weather forecasts from Environment Canada are predicting below normal precipitation for this year, but she stressed it’s difficult to tell precisely this far out.
“That’s why we only look at a three month window,” she said. “Some look a little further, but a five day weather forecast you’re lucky to have correct.”
Ultimately, Walford said they aren’t sounding any alarm bells yet.
She said droughts don’t occur from one dry year, it takes consecutive years with low precipitation for problems to start.
Dave Robertson, Okotoks infrastructure and operations director, said he is expecting a dry year, but he sees no reason to worry.
“What we’ve been seeing in the mountains is pretty much normal up to this point,” he said. “Down on the flatland around that town has seen less snow.”
Robertson said snowfall in March and April is a big contributor to the overall snowpack for the year.
“We may not see it here on the ground, but in the mountains it’s pretty normal,” she said.
